Updated 9 October 2026
Where rates stand
The Bank of England held the base rate at 3.75% on 17 September 2026, but three of the nine committee members voted to raise it to 4%. The next decision is on 5 November. Several forecasters now expect rises in November and February, taking the base rate to around 4.25%, mainly because of higher energy prices. Two-year fixed mortgage rates have already risen by nearly a percentage point since the conflict in the Middle East began.
Nobody knows for certain what the Bank will do. If you're coming off a fixed rate in the next year, though, it's worth knowing what a higher rate would do to your numbers.
Interest rates over the last 5 years
In late 2021 the base rate was 0.1%. It then rose fourteen times in under two years, to a peak of 5.25% in August 2023, and stayed there for a year. Six quarter-point cuts followed, taking it to 3.75% in December 2025, where it has stayed since.
That matters if you fixed for five years in 2021: your deal was priced when rates were at a record low, and it's ending now, when they're well above where they were.
Show the decisions as a table
| Date | Decision | Base rate |
|---|---|---|
| 16 Dec 2021 | Raised to 0.25% | 0.25% |
| 3 Feb 2022 | Raised to 0.5% | 0.50% |
| 17 Mar 2022 | Raised to 0.75% | 0.75% |
| 5 May 2022 | Raised to 1% | 1.00% |
| 16 Jun 2022 | Raised to 1.25% | 1.25% |
| 4 Aug 2022 | Raised to 1.75% | 1.75% |
| 22 Sep 2022 | Raised to 2.25% | 2.25% |
| 3 Nov 2022 | Raised to 3% | 3.00% |
| 15 Dec 2022 | Raised to 3.5% | 3.50% |
| 2 Feb 2023 | Raised to 4% | 4.00% |
| 23 Mar 2023 | Raised to 4.25% | 4.25% |
| 11 May 2023 | Raised to 4.5% | 4.50% |
| 22 Jun 2023 | Raised to 5% | 5.00% |
| 3 Aug 2023 | Raised to 5.25% | 5.25% |
| 1 Aug 2024 | Cut to 5% | 5.00% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | Cut to 4.75% | 4.75% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | Cut to 4.5% | 4.50% |
| 8 May 2025 | Cut to 4.25% | 4.25% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | Cut to 4% | 4.00% |
| 18 Dec 2025 | Cut to 3.75% | 3.75% |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Held at 3.75% (6–3 vote, three wanted 4%) | 3.75% |
Source: Bank of England. Rates that were held between changes are not listed, except the latest.
Fixed mortgage rates follow what markets expect the base rate to do, not just where it is today. That's why fixed deals have risen this autumn even though the base rate hasn't moved, and why a rise on 5 November may already be partly priced in.
Why landlords feel a rate rise more
If you own property in your own name, Section 24 means mortgage interest isn't deducted from your rental profit. You get a tax credit at the basic rate instead: 20% now and 22% from April 2027. So when your interest goes up by £1,000, a higher-rate taxpayer's tax bill only falls by about £200. A company deducts interest in full, so the same rise is softened by corporation tax.
Worked example
A landlord with a £200,000 interest-only mortgage coming off a 2.5% fix onto 5.25% pays £458 a month more: £10,500 a year instead of £5,000. Their tax falls by only a fraction of that, so most of the rise comes straight out of their cash flow. Try your own figures in the calculator above.
What you can do now
- Check when each fix ends. Many lenders let you lock in a new deal up to six months before the old one ends, so you can secure a rate now and switch to a cheaper one later if rates fall.
- Compare a product transfer with a remortgage. Staying with your lender is quicker and usually skips the rent cover test. Moving lender can be cheaper but means a new affordability check.
- Look at the fee as well as the rate. A low rate with a large fee can cost more on a smaller loan. Compare the total cost over the fixed period.
- Review the rent. If the rent is below the market, you can propose an increase once a year with a Section 13 notice. Use the rent increase calculator for the earliest date.
- Know your break-even rate. If the calculator shows a property loses money at the new rate, decide now whether to pay down the loan, raise the rent or sell, rather than when the fix ends.
A whole-of-market mortgage broker can compare buy-to-let deals for you, including lenders that only work through brokers.